Tag: Holystic Market Analysis

November 08, 2010 – 05:18 am EST

Wow and wow again.  Last week we talked about how bullish it was to see SMH close above $29 and while profit taking was likely “if the Transports breakout here then expect yet another leg to this rally”.  Well on Tuesday IYT closed at a new high and since then just about everything you can imagine is up and up big.

The LTMF 80 signal that comes free with this newsletter is showing a profit of 11.84% over the last 49 days and our main portfolio is up 35% YTD on margin (345% since June 2008).

****Thanks to all those who referred people to this newsletter over the last week. The more readers we have the more services we can provide you.

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ETF % Change Comparison

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When the numbers are laid out like this it is all the more impressive.  New highs for everything but IWM while SMH is almost 30% off its low and leads the market.  This is just the kind of strength that we want to see at new highs; the Semis and QQQQ out front while the more economically stable SPY and DIA lag.

Learn more – ETF % Change Comparison

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A Look at the Charts

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New highs are great but if you are not already in then wait for a pull back.

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When the RSI drops out of the upper extreme zone it will be a good time to take profits on short term positions.

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SMH broke out to a new high and the heavens rejoiced!  This is such a good sign for the health of the broad market.

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If IWM can close at a new high before we see some profit taking then the bull market is just getting started.

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From the view point of the Dow Theory this is an exceedingly bullish sign.

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OM3 Weekly Indicator

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The ‘Strong Buy’ signals that have existed for the last 10 weeks have been spot on.  ‘Bull Alerts’ have this week returned across the board.

Learn more – The OM3 Indicator

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TransDow & NasDow

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The Transportation Index and the NASDAQ remain dominant and both positions are showing a small profit.  Historically the market has achieved most of its gains under these conditions.

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What the TransDow Readings tell us:

The TransDow measures dominance between the DJ Transportation Index (DJTI) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). In a strong market the more economically sensitive Transportation Index should be dominant over the DJIA.

Historically the DJTI has been dominant over the Dow 45% of the time. The annualized rate of return from the DJTI during this period was 18.47% with the biggest loss for one trade sitting at -13.27%. The annualized return from the DJIA during the periods it was dominant over the DJTI was just 4.06% and the biggest loss for one trade was -16.13%. A 4% stop-loss is applied to all trades adjusting positions only at the end of the week.

What the NasDow Readings tell us:

The NasDow measures dominance between the NASDAQ and the DJIA. Using the same theory behind the Trans Dow; in a strong market the more economically sensitive NASDAQ should be dominant over the DJIA.

Historically the NASDAQ has been dominant over the DJIA 44% of the time. Taking only the trades when the NASDAQ is above its 40 week moving average the annualized rate of return was 25.47% with the biggest loss for one trade sitting at –8.59%. The annualized rate on the DJIA during the periods it was dominant over the NASDAQ is just 8.88% and the biggest loss for one trade was –12.28%. A 8% stop-loss is applied to all trades adjusting positions only at the end of the week.

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LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

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Both the LTMF 80 and Liquid Q have open positions in QQQQ and both of them are showing a profit at this point.

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Historical Stats:

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How The LTMF 80 Works

LTMF stands for Long Term Market Forecaster. It reads volume flows relative to price action and looks for out performance of volume measured on a percentage basis over the prior 12 months. During a sustained rally the readings will reach high levels (near 100%) making it imposable for the volume reading to always outperform price so any reading above 80% will maintain the buy signal. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years but performance has been damaged by some nasty losses. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ.

How Liquid Q Works

Liquid Q completely ignores price action and instead measures the relative flow of money between a selection of economically sensitive and comparatively stable ares of the market. It looks for times when the smart money is confident and and can be seen by through volume investing heavily is more risky areas due to an expectation of expansion. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years and remained in cash through most of the major declines. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ. We will provide more performance details on the web site for these systems soon.

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Summary

This rally didn’t start the best way; it lacked volume across the board and participation from SMH.  Now volume is improving, SMH has played catch up and all the influential ETFs but IWM are at new highs for the year.  This is all exceedingly positive and gives backing to a more long term bullish prospect.

However the danger when a market relentlessly keeps going up like this is forgetting that it won’t continue indefinitely.  We are well overdue for some profit taking and the risk of a short term correction is high.  Due to the latest developments any pull back should be seen as an opportunity to add to long term bullish positions.

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Any disputes, questions, queries, comments or theories are most welcome in the comments section below.

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Derry

And the Team @ ETF HQ

“Equipping you to win on Wall St so that you can reach your financial goals.”

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P.S Like ETFHQ on Facebook – HERE

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Quote of the Day:

“I want employees to ask themselves whether they are willing to have any contemplated act appear on the front page of their local paper the next day, be read by their spouses, children and friends… If they follow this test, they will not fear my other message to them: Lose money for my firm, and I will be understanding; lose a shred of reputation for the firm, and I will be ruthless.” – Warren Buffett

November 01, 2010 – 06:20 am EDT

The market was flat over the last week but there was one major development…  SMH violently broke through resistance and finished the week 3.65% higher.  This took me by real surprise but is a very bullish sign and does now mean that we can get away with seeing some profit taking without killing the bull.  Over the short term however profit taking is becoming more and more likely.

****Thanks to all those who referred people to this newsletter over the last week. The more readers we have the more services we can provide you.

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ETF % Change Comparison

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SMH is now over 21% off the low it set 59 days ago which is twice the move of DIA.  Now the transports are less than 1% from making a new high, if they can do this then it would be a very bullish sign.

Learn more – ETF % Change Comparison

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A Look at the Charts

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Can the grind higher continue?  Momentum is slowing but prices are yet to take a step back.

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Well out in new high territory and with SMH playing catch up; QQQQ is gaining credibility for its longer term prospects.

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Again I underestimated this market but the recent action from SMH is a very bullish sign.

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Volume on IWM is particularly weak and further suggests short term weakness.

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If the Transports breakout here then expect yet another leg to this rally.

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OM3 Weekly Indicator

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The OM3 Indicator has issued its first ‘Bear Alerts’ in 7 weeks further indicating that the market momentum is slowing but all buy signals remain active.

Learn more – The OM3 Indicator

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TransDow & NasDow

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This is a positive development; the NasDow indicates that the NASDAQ has taken dominance over the Dow and opened a new position in the NASDAQ on Friday.  The TransDow continues to maintain a position in the Transportation index and is showing a small profit.

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What the TransDow Readings tell us:

The TransDow measures dominance between the DJ Transportation Index (DJTI) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). In a strong market the more economically sensitive Transportation Index should be dominant over the DJIA.

Historically the DJTI has been dominant over the Dow 45% of the time. The annualized rate of return from the DJTI during this period was 18.47% with the biggest loss for one trade sitting at -13.27%. The annualized return from the DJIA during the periods it was dominant over the DJTI was just 4.06% and the biggest loss for one trade was -16.13%. A 4% stop-loss is applied to all trades adjusting positions only at the end of the week.

What the NasDow Readings tell us:

The NasDow measures dominance between the NASDAQ and the DJIA. Using the same theory behind the Trans Dow; in a strong market the more economically sensitive NASDAQ should be dominant over the DJIA.

Historically the NASDAQ has been dominant over the DJIA 44% of the time. Taking only the trades when the NASDAQ is above its 40 week moving average the annualized rate of return was 25.47% with the biggest loss for one trade sitting at –8.59%. The annualized rate on the DJIA during the periods it was dominant over the NASDAQ is just 8.88% and the biggest loss for one trade was –12.28%. A 8% stop-loss is applied to all trades adjusting positions only at the end of the week.

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LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

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LTMF 80 remains in QQQQ and is showing a tasty little profit of 8.73% after 42 days while Liquid Q has just opened a new position in QQQQ.

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Historical Stats:

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How The LTMF 80 Works

LTMF stands for Long Term Market Forecaster. It reads volume flows relative to price action and looks for out performance of volume measured on a percentage basis over the prior 12 months. During a sustained rally the readings will reach high levels (near 100%) making it imposable for the volume reading to always outperform price so any reading above 80% will maintain the buy signal. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years but performance has been damaged by some nasty losses. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ.

How Liquid Q Works

Liquid Q completely ignores price action and instead measures the relative flow of money between a selection of economically sensitive and comparatively stable ares of the market. It looks for times when the smart money is confident and and can be seen by through volume investing heavily is more risky areas due to an expectation of expansion. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years and remained in cash through most of the major declines. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ. We will provide more performance details on the web site for these systems soon.

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Summary

This market is far from perfect and should be treated with skepticism.  We have been looking for excuses to sell but they never really came… the market has just kept grinding higher.  Now with SMH breaking out and fresh buy signals from some of our models the longer term prospects are looking much better.  Over the short term however we are due for a test of support.

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Any disputes, questions, queries, comments or theories are most welcome in the comments section below.

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Happy Halloween

Derry

And the Team @ ETF HQ

“Equipping you to win on Wall St so that you can reach your financial goals.”

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P.S Like ETFHQ on Facebook – HERE

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Quote of the Day:

“Watch your thoughts, for they become words.  Choose your words, for they become actions.  Understand your actions, for they become habits.  Study your habits, for they will become your character.  Develop your character, for it becomes your destiny!” – Unknown

October 25, 2010 – 07:05 am EDT

It was all quiet on the range over the last week with no major moves in either direction.  Because there has been such a lack of volume behind the second half of this rally, momentum is particularly important.  When the momentum is gone there will be little to hold this market up so any loss of support is likely to escalate into more sustained selling.  Indications are that momentum has run out but we are yet to see support levels being broken.  Lets take a closer look…

****Thanks to all those who referred people to this newsletter over the last week. The more readers we have the more services we can provide you.

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ETF % Change Comparison

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All the influential ETFs managed to finish the week higher but not by much.  If we see some profit taking over the coming week I will be looking to IWM and SMH in particular to get a gauge of how real it is.

Learn more – ETF % Change Comparison

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A Look at the Charts

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Signs of a slow in momentum on the back of poor volume flows make higher prices difficult.

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If the RSI on QQQQ turns bearish then this will be a good excuse to take profits as volume flows remain weak.

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If SMH can close above $29 then I will be very surprised but this would very positive.

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The volume trend has turned bearish along with the RSI indicating that higher prices are most unlikely.

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If the transports can close at a new high then this would be a very positive sign for the broad market and would stand as a good reason to keep holding onto your longs.

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OM3 Weekly Indicator

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The OM3 indicator remains positive across the board.

Learn more – The OM3 Indicator

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TransDow & NasDow

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The TransDow continues to hold a position (with a small profit) in the Transportation Index as it remains dominant over the Dow.  The NasDow indicates that the Dow is dominant over the NASDAQ which is historically an unproductive time so it remains in cash.

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What the TransDow Readings tell us:

The TransDow measures dominance between the DJ Transportation Index (DJTI) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). In a strong market the more economically sensitive Transportation Index should be dominant over the DJIA.

Historically the DJTI has been dominant over the Dow 45% of the time. The annualized rate of return from the DJTI during this period was 18.47% with the biggest loss for one trade sitting at -13.27%. The annualized return from the DJIA during the periods it was dominant over the DJTI was just 4.06% and the biggest loss for one trade was -16.13%. A 4% stop-loss is applied to all trades adjusting positions only at the end of the week.

What the NasDow Readings tell us:

The NasDow measures dominance between the NASDAQ and the DJIA. Using the same theory behind the Trans Dow; in a strong market the more economically sensitive NASDAQ should be dominant over the DJIA.

Historically the NASDAQ has been dominant over the DJIA 44% of the time. Taking only the trades when the NASDAQ is above its 40 week moving average the annualized rate of return was 25.47% with the biggest loss for one trade sitting at –8.59%. The annualized rate on the DJIA during the periods it was dominant over the NASDAQ is just 8.88% and the biggest loss for one trade was –12.28%. A 8% stop-loss is applied to all trades adjusting positions only at the end of the week.

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LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

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LTMF 80 remains in QQQQ and is showing a tasty little profit while Liquid Q remains in cash.

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Historical Stats:

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How The LTMF 80 Works

LTMF stands for Long Term Market Forecaster. It reads volume flows relative to price action and looks for out performance of volume measured on a percentage basis over the prior 12 months. During a sustained rally the readings will reach high levels (near 100%) making it imposable for the volume reading to always outperform price so any reading above 80% will maintain the buy signal. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years but performance has been damaged by some nasty losses. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ.

How Liquid Q Works

Liquid Q completely ignores price action and instead measures the relative flow of money between a selection of economically sensitive and comparatively stable ares of the market. It looks for times when the smart money is confident and and can be seen by through volume investing heavily is more risky areas due to an expectation of expansion. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years and remained in cash through most of the major declines. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ. We will provide more performance details on the web site for these systems soon.

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Summary

The Transports are knocking on the door of new highs and SMH on the door of a higher high.  The market is unlikely to have the momentum to break through these resistance levels but if it can then profit taking can occur without killing the bull.  If the profit taking comes before these levels are broken then due to the lack of volume the declines could be sharp.

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Any disputes, questions, queries, comments or theories are most welcome in the comments section below.

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Cheers

Derry

And the Team @ ETF HQ

“Equipping you to win on Wall St so that you can reach your financial goals.”

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P.S Like ETFHQ on Facebook – HERE

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Quote of the Day:

“It doesn’t matter if people are interested.  It’s about you taking your stuff and shouting out into the void.” – Jadelr and Cristina Cordova

October 18, 2010 – 07:00 am EDT

The market had another great week and QQQQ actually moved to a new high for the year.  It is always good to see the NASDAQ 100 ETF leading the market higher so what is the problem?  There continues to be a distinct lack of volume behind the second leg of this rally and SMH lagged behind over the last week.  These signs are not encouraging but lets take a closer look…

****Thanks to all those who referred people to this newsletter over the last week. The more readers we have the more services we can provide you.

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ETF % Change Comparison

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As you can see, SMH was only up 0.42% over the last week despite QQQQ leaping ahead 3.50%.  This would not be so concerning were it not for the lack of volume.

Learn more – ETF % Change Comparison

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A Look at the Charts

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Now is a time to hold and look for excuses to sell.  Volume says that this rally is simply unsustainable.

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QQQQ’s new high, despite looking impressive lacks volume and the backing of the semiconductors.

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If SMH can close above $29 then I will be very surprised.  A close below $28 will be a warning to book profits.

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No reasons to jump out of IWM at this point but it wont take much for volume flows to turn bearish.

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IYT has the best volume flows of the influential ETFs.  If it can break through to new highs then this would be a very positive sign.

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OM3 Weekly Indicator

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There are no warning signs from the OM3 Indicator, ‘Strong Buy’ signals with ‘Bull Alerts’ persist across the board.

Learn more – The OM3 Indicator

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TransDow & NasDow

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The TransDow is showing a small profit after one week in the Transportation Index.  The NasDow indicates that the Dow has just become dominant over the NASDAQ; historically this has signaled increased risk in the market.

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What the TransDow Readings tell us:

The TransDow measures dominance between the DJ Transportation Index (DJTI) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). In a strong market the more economically sensitive Transportation Index should be dominant over the DJIA.

Historically the DJTI has been dominant over the Dow 45% of the time. The annualized rate of return from the DJTI during this period was 18.47% with the biggest loss for one trade sitting at -13.27%. The annualized return from the DJIA during the periods it was dominant over the DJTI was just 4.06% and the biggest loss for one trade was -16.13%. A 4% stop-loss is applied to all trades adjusting positions only at the end of the week.

What the NasDow Readings tell us:

The NasDow measures dominance between the NASDAQ and the DJIA. Using the same theory behind the Trans Dow; in a strong market the more economically sensitive NASDAQ should be dominant over the DJIA.

Historically the NASDAQ has been dominant over the DJIA 44% of the time. Taking only the trades when the NASDAQ is above its 40 week moving average the annualized rate of return was 25.47% with the biggest loss for one trade sitting at –8.59%. The annualized rate on the DJIA during the periods it was dominant over the NASDAQ is just 8.88% and the biggest loss for one trade was –12.28%. A 8% stop-loss is applied to all trades adjusting positions only at the end of the week.

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LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

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LTMF 80 is showing a tasty little profit on QQQQ after 28 days, lets hope that these profits will remain if we see a pull back.

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Historical Stats:

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How The LTMF 80 Works

LTMF stands for Long Term Market Forecaster. It reads volume flows relative to price action and looks for out performance of volume measured on a percentage basis over the prior 12 months. During a sustained rally the readings will reach high levels (near 100%) making it imposable for the volume reading to always outperform price so any reading above 80% will maintain the buy signal. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years but performance has been damaged by some nasty losses. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ.

How Liquid Q Works

Liquid Q completely ignores price action and instead measures the relative flow of money between a selection of economically sensitive and comparatively stable ares of the market. It looks for times when the smart money is confident and and can be seen by through volume investing heavily is more risky areas due to an expectation of expansion. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years and remained in cash through most of the major declines. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ. We will provide more performance details on the web site for these systems soon.

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Summary

The rally over the last 7+ weeks has been impressive and the market has made some real ground higher.  At this time there are no solid reasons to sell but there are multiple warning signs that the current risk level is very high.  Most notably these risks are from a lack of volume almost across the board and more recently a failure by SMH at resistance.  Now is certainly not a time to be looking to open new bullish positions but it is a time to look for excuses to lock in profits.

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Any disputes, questions, queries, comments or theories are most welcome in the comments section below.

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Cheers

Derry

And the Team @ ETF HQ

“Equipping you to win on Wall St so that you can reach your financial goals.”

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P.S Like ETFHQ on Facebook – HERE

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Quote of the Day:

“The eyes of others are the eyes that ruin us.  If all but myself were blind, I should want neither fine clothes, fine houses, nor fine furniture.” – Benjamin Franklin

October 11, 2010 – 06:00 am EDT

It was a week where everything that needed to occur, occurred and the bull remains alive.  In our last newsletter we spoke of how important it was for SMH to hold onto $27; due to the large volume divergence the market couldn’t afford to see any real profit taking.  Thankfully SMH never got the chance to test $27 and powered on to post some healthy gains.

On a separate topic we have recently released some new research on the Fractal Adaptive Moving Average (FRAMA) that reveals this obscure indicator is more effective than any simple or exponential moving average.  Check it out and let me know what you think: FRAMA – Is It Effective?

****Thanks to all those who referred people to this newsletter over the last week.  The more readers we have the more services we can provide you.

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ETF % Change Comparison

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IYT, SMH and IWM were the leaders out of the influential ETFs over the last week.  This is fantastic news because we like to see these more economically sensitive ETFs leading the market.  As long as this pattern continues we must continue to take the bulls seriously.

Learn more – ETF % Change Comparison

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A Look at the Charts

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Poor volume flows continue on SPY but prices also continue to rise.  If SMH and IWM falter then expect SPY to really suffer.

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QQQQ also shows a lack of conviction from its volume flows.  This makes the continued strength from SMH all the more important.

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A little more and volume flows on SMH will turn bullish which would be a major vote of confidence in the bulls.

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IWM keeps taking one step backwards and two steps forward but is moving in the right direction.  Volume needs to pickup though.

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Great to see OBV on the transports near a new high.  New highs from IYT backed by volume would be extremely bullish.

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OM3 Weekly Indicator

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‘Strong Buy’ signals with ‘Bull Alerts’ persist across the board.

Learn more – The OM3 Indicator

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TransDow & NasDow

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The NasDow remains on No Signal while the TransDow opened a new position with the Transportation index on Friday.  This is positive as dominance from the Transports is an sign of market strength.

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What the TransDow Readings tell us:

The TransDow measures dominance between the DJ Transportation Index (DJTI) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). In a strong market the more economically sensitive Transportation Index should be dominant over the DJIA.

Historically the DJTI has been dominant over the Dow 45% of the time. The annualized rate of return from the DJTI during this period was 18.47% with the biggest loss for one trade sitting at -13.27%. The annualized return from the DJIA during the periods it was dominant over the DJTI was just 4.06% and the biggest loss for one trade was -16.13%. A 4% stop-loss is applied to all trades adjusting positions only at the end of the week.

What the NasDow Readings tell us:

The NasDow measures dominance between the NASDAQ and the DJIA. Using the same theory behind the Trans Dow; in a strong market the more economically sensitive NASDAQ should be dominant over the DJIA.

Historically the NASDAQ has been dominant over the DJIA 44% of the time. Taking only the trades when the NASDAQ is above its 40 week moving average the annualized rate of return was 25.47% with the biggest loss for one trade sitting at –8.59%. The annualized rate on the DJIA during the periods it was dominant over the NASDAQ is just 8.88% and the biggest loss for one trade was –12.28%. A 8% stop-loss is applied to all trades adjusting positions only at the end of the week.

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LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

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Liquid Q remains in cash while the LTMF 80 continues to hold a position in QQQQ that is showing a minor profit.

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Historical Stats:

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How The LTMF 80 Works

LTMF stands for Long Term Market Forecaster. It reads volume flows relative to price action and looks for out performance of volume measured on a percentage basis over the prior 12 months. During a sustained rally the readings will reach high levels (near 100%) making it imposable for the volume reading to always outperform price so any reading above 80% will maintain the buy signal. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years but performance has been damaged by some nasty losses. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ.

How Liquid Q Works

Liquid Q completely ignores price action and instead measures the relative flow of money between a selection of economically sensitive and comparatively stable ares of the market. It looks for times when the smart money is confident and and can be seen by through volume investing heavily is more risky areas due to an expectation of expansion. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years and remained in cash through most of the major declines. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ. We will provide more performance details on the web site for these systems soon.

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Summary

Little has changed over the last week apart from the fact that the market is a bit higher.  SMH and IWM continue to fuel a market that lacks the backing of strong volume.  This is a risky situation that can also result in tidy profits.  Remain alert as things could turn bad in short order but until then, enjoy it while it lasts.

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Any disputes, questions, queries, comments or theories are most welcome in the comments section below.

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Cheers

Derry

And the Team @ ETF HQ

“Equipping you to win on Wall St so that you can reach your financial goals.”

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P.S Like ETFHQ on Facebook – HERE

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Quote of the Day:

“Knowing others is intelligence; knowing yourself is true wisdom.  Mastering others is strength; mastering yourself is true power.” – Tao Te Ching

October 04, 2010 – 02:40 pm EDT

Sorry for the delay with this weeks newsletter, I was out at the beach all day Monday (NZ Time) and when I had almost finished writing the newsletter the internet went down.  Since then the new week has gotten off to a rocky start.  Here is the report as written about 10 hours ago:

The market didn’t achieve much over the last week but on a positive note it didn’t do any damage either.  There is however a significant volume divergence that has become obvious and in a fledgling bullish reversal volume flows should be healthy across the board.  The fact that they are not is a real cause for concern.

****Thanks to all those who referred people to this newsletter over the last week. The more readers we have the more services we can provide you.

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ETF % Change Comparison

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This is positive – IWM up 1.30% and SMH up 0.62% while QQQQ is down 1.31%.  Also SMH and IWM are now the furthest from their recent lows. This pattern must continue if the bull is to manage a second leg to this rally.

Learn more – ETF % Change Comparison

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A Look at the Charts

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The volume divergence is clear and must not be ignored. While SPY is making a higher high OBV is near to a lower low.

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QQQQ also has a bearish volume divergence and will need continued support from SMH to hold together.

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It would be exceedingly bad news if SMH closes below $27, and will most likely mark the return to the crab market.

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IWM is actually looking the best of the bunch and hopefully it can continue to lead the market higher. It must maintain that bullish volume trend.

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A rally from IYT would do wonders to support this market and the volume flows of its component stocks are very strong. A close below $80 would be bad news.

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OM3 Weekly Indicator

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‘Strong Buy’ signals with ‘Bull Alerts’ persist across the board.

Learn more – The OM3 Indicator

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TransDow & NasDow

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The NasDow remains on No Signal while the TransDow indicates that the Dow is dominant over the Transports. Historically the market has been very unproductive under these conditions.

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What the TransDow Readings tell us:

The TransDow measures dominance between the DJ Transportation Index (DJTI) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). In a strong market the more economically sensitive Transportation Index should be dominant over the DJIA.

Historically the DJTI has been dominant over the Dow 45% of the time. The annualized rate of return from the DJTI during this period was 18.47% with the biggest loss for one trade sitting at -13.27%. The annualized return from the DJIA during the periods it was dominant over the DJTI was just 4.06% and the biggest loss for one trade was -16.13%. A 4% stop-loss is applied to all trades adjusting positions only at the end of the week.

What the NasDow Readings tell us:

The NasDow measures dominance between the NASDAQ and the DJIA. Using the same theory behind the Trans Dow; in a strong market the more economically sensitive NASDAQ should be dominant over the DJIA.

Historically the NASDAQ has been dominant over the DJIA 44% of the time. Taking only the trades when the NASDAQ is above its 40 week moving average the annualized rate of return was 25.47% with the biggest loss for one trade sitting at –8.59%. The annualized rate on the DJIA during the periods it was dominant over the NASDAQ is just 8.88% and the biggest loss for one trade was –12.28%. A 8% stop-loss is applied to all trades adjusting positions only at the end of the week.

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LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

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Liquid Q remains in cash while the LTMF 80 continues to hold a position in QQQQ that is showing a minor profit.

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Historical Stats:

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How The LTMF 80 Works

LTMF stands for Long Term Market Forecaster. It reads volume flows relative to price action and looks for out performance of volume measured on a percentage basis over the prior 12 months. During a sustained rally the readings will reach high levels (near 100%) making it imposable for the volume reading to always outperform price so any reading above 80% will maintain the buy signal. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years but performance has been damaged by some nasty losses. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ.

How Liquid Q Works

Liquid Q completely ignores price action and instead measures the relative flow of money between a selection of economically sensitive and comparatively stable ares of the market. It looks for times when the smart money is confident and and can be seen by through volume investing heavily is more risky areas due to an expectation of expansion. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years and remained in cash through most of the major declines. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ. We will provide more performance details on the web site for these systems soon.

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Summary

On a positive note SMH and IWM continued to advance over the last week while the broad market consolidated. This is exactly what we want to see in a strong market. The problem is that there is a major volume divergence on SPY and QQQQ suggesting that the market is weak and soon to experience some profit taking.

If SMH closed below $27, volume flows turn bearish on IWM and the RSIs turn down then the profit taking is likely to become a return to the crab/bear market.  It is too early to go short just yet and I would love to see a short squeeze defibrillate some volume behind the bulls but that appears unlikely.

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Any disputes, questions, queries, comments or theories are most welcome in the comments section below.

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Cheers

Derry

And the Team @ ETF HQ

“Equipping you to win on Wall St so that you can reach your financial goals.”

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P.S Like ETFHQ on Facebook – HERE

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Quote of the Day:

“The challenge of leadership is to be strong, but not rude; be kind, but not weak; be bold, but not a bully; be thoughtful, but not lazy; be humble, but not timid; be proud, but not arrogant; have humor, but without folly.” – Jim Rohn

September 27, 2010 – 05:07 am EDT

It was another great week for the market.  Previously we said that the bulls had the upper hand as long as SMH held onto $26 and IWM its 200 day SMA.  These levels were tested on Thursday and acted as the launching pad for a monster jump on Friday that was lead by SMH.  Yes the Semis have been playing catch up and on Thursday they showed great strength by advancing while the majority of the market was down.  Seeing SMH showing leadership to the upside like this gives real validity to the recent rally.

But it wasn’t all good, volume in many areas was lacking and several of the influential ETFs are yet to break above their July highs.  Lets lake a closer look:

****Thanks to all those who referred people to this newsletter over the last week. The more readers we have the more services we can provide you.

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ETF % Change Comparison

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The transports have been rather sluggish which hasn’t helped the position we held in IYT but QQQQ and SMH lead the way higher over the last week which is just fantastic news.  When you look at the “% From Bottom” you can see that the leaders are almost in order from left to right.  This is exactly what we want to see off market bottoms: the economically sensitive leading the economically stable.

Learn more – ETF % Change Comparison

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A Look at the Charts

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The lack of volume is a concern but the higher high is great news.  If QQQQ keeps going then SPY will follow.

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QQQQ didn’t have much volume behind the big move over the last week but SMH has the fuel to sustain this rally.

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It was make or break for SMH but $26 held strong and with it now above the 200 day SMA; $29 is a real possibility.  If that occurs then it will provide the fuel that the broad market needs to make some major technical victories.

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It will be important for IWM to break past the July high this week if the rally is to continue.

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It’s unfortunate that the Transports remain so sluggish but keep an eye on IYT.  If the market continues higher and the transports get left behind then a major sell off will not be far away.

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OM3 Weekly Indicator

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Finally all of the ETFs including SMH have moved to a ‘Strong Buy’ signal.  With most of the signals having been active for four weeks this rally is getting statistically mature.

Learn more – The OM3 Indicator

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TransDow & NasDow

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The Dow has become dominant over the Transports and the position we held has been closed for a small 2.19% profit, the TransDow is now in cash.  The NasDow also remains in cash as there is no clearly dominant index between the Dow and the NASDAQ.

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What the TransDow Readings tell us:

The TransDow measures dominance between the DJ Transportation Index (DJTI) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). In a strong market the more economically sensitive Transportation Index should be dominant over the DJIA.

Historically the DJTI has been dominant over the Dow 45% of the time. The annualized rate of return from the DJTI during this period was 18.47% with the biggest loss for one trade sitting at -13.27%. The annualized return from the DJIA during the periods it was dominant over the DJTI was just 4.06% and the biggest loss for one trade was -16.13%. A 4% stop-loss is applied to all trades adjusting positions only at the end of the week.

What the NasDow Readings tell us:

The NasDow measures dominance between the NASDAQ and the DJIA. Using the same theory behind the Trans Dow; in a strong market the more economically sensitive NASDAQ should be dominant over the DJIA.

Historically the NASDAQ has been dominant over the DJIA 44% of the time. Taking only the trades when the NASDAQ is above its 40 week moving average the annualized rate of return was 25.47% with the biggest loss for one trade sitting at –8.59%. The annualized rate on the DJIA during the periods it was dominant over the NASDAQ is just 8.88% and the biggest loss for one trade was –12.28%. A 8% stop-loss is applied to all trades adjusting positions only at the end of the week.

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LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

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After 7 days the LTMF 80 position in QQQQ is showing a profit of 3.27% and remains open while Liquid Q remains in cash.

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Historical Stats:

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How The LTMF 80 Works

LTMF stands for Long Term Market Forecaster. It reads volume flows relative to price action and looks for out performance of volume measured on a percentage basis over the prior 12 months. During a sustained rally the readings will reach high levels (near 100%) making it imposable for the volume reading to always outperform price so any reading above 80% will maintain the buy signal. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years but performance has been damaged by some nasty losses. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ.

How Liquid Q Works

Liquid Q completely ignores price action and instead measures the relative flow of money between a selection of economically sensitive and comparatively stable ares of the market. It looks for times when the smart money is confident and and can be seen by through volume investing heavily is more risky areas due to an expectation of expansion. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years and remained in cash through most of the major declines. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ. We will provide more performance details on the web site for these systems soon.

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Summary

We identified this rally a month ago as just short term strength; underestimating it due to the fact that it was not backed by participation from SMH.  Now for the second week we are seeing SMH lead the market higher and because the semis are so far behind the broad market they have a lot of catching up to do.   With many other areas of the market running out of steam hopefully SMH will provide the fuel that is needed to sustain this rally a little longer.  That will help IWM and IYT to make a higher high before the inevitable pull back that is on the way.

If we see a pull back this week then the previously identified support levels of $26 on SMH and the 200 day SMA on IWM must hold or this entire rally will have been nothing more that a giant fake.  As always stay alert!

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Any disputes, questions, queries, comments or theories are most welcome in the comments section below.

.

Cheers
Derry

And the Team @ ETF HQ

“Equipping you to win on Wall St so that you can reach your financial goals.”

.

P.S Like ETFHQ on Facebook – HERE

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Quote of the Day:

“If you’re a chartist but don’t understand psychology, then those charts won’t do much for you” – John C. Lee AKA The Chart Addict

September 20, 2010 – 01:45 am EDT

Well I have no problem in admitting when we are wrong and at this point it certainly looks as though we may have been wrong about the market heading for new lows.  Last week we said that if SMH can close above $26 and IWM above $65 then things would need to be reassessed.  These two milestones were achieved early on in the week so it is time to start taking the bulls seriously.

****Thanks to all those who referred people to this newsletter over the last week. The more readers we have the more services we can provide you.

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ETF % Change Comparison

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It was very positive to see SMH advance a huge 6.14% over the last week, it is basically playing catch up.  If we see a pull back over the coming week and SMH is hit more lightly than the broad market then this should be used as a buying opportunity and vice versa.

Learn more – ETF % Change Comparison

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A Look at the Charts

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SPY is saying that the market is very unlikely to break through resistance.

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QQQQ says that we are in the grips of a healthy bull market and QQQQ holds more weight than SPY.

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As long as SMH holds above $26 or declines less than the broad market moving forward then the bulls must be taken seriously.

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While IWM holds above its 200 day SMA the bulls have the upper hand.  Below this level declines are likely to accelerate.

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If the Transports can break through to a higher high it will be a very positive sign for the broad market.

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OM3 Weekly Indicator

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All the ETFs are on their third week of ‘Strong Buy’ signals apart from SMH which remains on a ‘Strong Sell’ but has recieved a ‘Bull Alert’.  Historically the average ‘Strong Buy’ signal has lasted for 6 weeks.

Learn more – The OM3 Indicator

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TransDow & NasDow

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The Transports remain dominant over the the Dow and the TransDow is showing a small profit after two weeks in the Transportation Index.  The NasDow remains in cash.

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What the TransDow Readings tell us:

The TransDow measures dominance between the DJ Transportation Index (DJTI) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). In a strong market the more economically sensitive Transportation Index should be dominant over the DJIA.

Historically the DJTI has been dominant over the Dow 45% of the time. The annualized rate of return from the DJTI during this period was 18.47% with the biggest loss for one trade sitting at -13.27%. The annualized return from the DJIA during the periods it was dominant over the DJTI was just 4.06% and the biggest loss for one trade was -16.13%. A 4% stop-loss is applied to all trades adjusting positions only at the end of the week.

What the NasDow Readings tell us:

The NasDow measures dominance between the NASDAQ and the DJIA. Using the same theory behind the Trans Dow; in a strong market the more economically sensitive NASDAQ should be dominant over the DJIA.

Historically the NASDAQ has been dominant over the DJIA 44% of the time. Taking only the trades when the NASDAQ is above its 40 week moving average the annualized rate of return was 25.47% with the biggest loss for one trade sitting at –8.59%. The annualized rate on the DJIA during the periods it was dominant over the NASDAQ is just 8.88% and the biggest loss for one trade was –12.28%. A 8% stop-loss is applied to all trades adjusting positions only at the end of the week.

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LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

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The LTMF 80 opened a new position in QQQQ at Fridays close.  This trade has a 50% probability of being profitable but the average profit is 12.5% and the average loss is 3%.  Liquid Q remains in cash.

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Historical Stats:

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How The LTMF 80 Works

LTMF stands for Long Term Market Forecaster. It reads volume flows relative to price action and looks for out performance of volume measured on a percentage basis over the prior 12 months. During a sustained rally the readings will reach high levels (near 100%) making it imposable for the volume reading to always outperform price so any reading above 80% will maintain the buy signal. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years but performance has been damaged by some nasty losses. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ.

How Liquid Q Works

Liquid Q completely ignores price action and instead measures the relative flow of money between a selection of economically sensitive and comparatively stable ares of the market. It looks for times when the smart money is confident and and can be seen by through volume investing heavily is more risky areas due to an expectation of expansion. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years and remained in cash through most of the major declines. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ. We will provide more performance details on the web site for these systems soon.

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Summary

The conflicting market internals that have characterized the crab market of the last 4 months continue.  It has been a very challenging time and our main portfolio is only up 25% YTD on margin.  But with the S&P 500 up only 0.94% over the same time; it could be worse.

Over the last week the bulls have proved that they need to be taken seriously despite continued uncertainly.  The fact that SMH has been so late to enter the recent rally is real cause for concern but the positives can’t be ignored.  The market is due for a pull back although it can’t really afford to suffer much of a retrace at this point.  It is important that IWM holds above its 200 day SMA and SMH above $26.  Below these levels there is a high risk of a major market failure.

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Any disputes, questions, queries, comments or theories are most welcome in the comments section below.

.

Cheers
Derry

And the Team @ ETF HQ

“Equipping you to win on Wall St so that you can reach your financial goals.”

.

P.S Like ETFHQ on Facebook – HERE

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.

Quote of the Day:

“Bad ideas is good.  Good ideas is better.  No ideas is terrible.” – Lenny Baum

September 13, 2010 – 01:35 am EDT

It is not often that you see a market that looks like more of a bull trap than this one.  At first glance the major indices appear to be recovering nicely, on healthy volume and working their way through resistance.  But…..

Where’s The Beef

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This recent rally lacks substance and there are warning signs of almost imminent failure.  Why?  Lets take a closer look:

****Thanks to all those who referred people to this newsletter over the last week. The more readers we have the more services we can provide you.

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ETF % Change Comparison

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Over the last week, two of the most economically sensitive areas of the market; the Semiconductors (SMH) and the Small Caps (IWM) bucked the trend and declined 2.95% and 0.95% respectively.  Furthermore, SMH was the first to peak 148 days ago, was late to bottom 10 days ago, is the furthest from its high and closets to its low.

Semiconductors lead the business cycle and constantly undergo periods of under and over supply based on the growth of the economy.  All expansion in this age requires technological info-structure, semiconductors are the building block of that info-structure and have a very short shelf life.  This is why it is so concerning to see SMH getting left behind in the recent rally.

Learn more – ETF % Change Comparison

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A Look at the Charts

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The trend change in volume from SPY looks great BUT means little while SMH and IWM continue to underperform.

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Great volume on QQQQ – yes, working its way through resistance – tick… But, without SMH to confirm, this is a hollow victory.  If QQQQ closes back below its 200 day SMA then declines are likely to accelerate.

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The challenges with SMH are clear; terrible volume flows, falling prices, near lows etc.  Above $26 there is hope, below there is little.

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IWM actually has good volume flows which is very positive but the 200 Day SMA resistance is strong and a close above $65 is necessary before taking the bulls seriously.  Below $62.50 we enter the danger zone.

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The transports are not offering much insight at the moment

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OM3 Weekly Indicator

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The OM3 indicator is on its second week of buy signals now but it’s concerning that SMH remains on a ‘Strong Sell’.

Learn more – The OM3 Indicator

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TransDow & NasDow

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The TransDow continues to indicate that the Transports are dominant over the Dow which is a positive sign and the position in IYT is basically flat at this point.  The NasDow is showing no clearly dominant index between the Dow and the NASDAQ.

.

What the TransDow Readings tell us:

The TransDow measures dominance between the DJ Transportation Index (DJTI) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). In a strong market the more economically sensitive Transportation Index should be dominant over the DJIA.

Historically the DJTI has been dominant over the Dow 45% of the time. The annualized rate of return from the DJTI during this period was 18.47% with the biggest loss for one trade sitting at -13.27%. The annualized return from the DJIA during the periods it was dominant over the DJTI was just 4.06% and the biggest loss for one trade was -16.13%. A 4% stop-loss is applied to all trades adjusting positions only at the end of the week.

What the NasDow Readings tell us:

The NasDow measures dominance between the NASDAQ and the DJIA. Using the same theory behind the Trans Dow; in a strong market the more economically sensitive NASDAQ should be dominant over the DJIA.

Historically the NASDAQ has been dominant over the DJIA 44% of the time. Taking only the trades when the NASDAQ is above its 40 week moving average the annualized rate of return was 25.47% with the biggest loss for one trade sitting at –8.59%. The annualized rate on the DJIA during the periods it was dominant over the NASDAQ is just 8.88% and the biggest loss for one trade was –12.28%. A 8% stop-loss is applied to all trades adjusting positions only at the end of the week.

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.

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

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Both LTMF 80 and Liquid Q remain in cash.

.

Historical Stats:

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.

How The LTMF 80 Works

LTMF stands for Long Term Market Forecaster. It reads volume flows relative to price action and looks for out performance of volume measured on a percentage basis over the prior 12 months. During a sustained rally the readings will reach high levels (near 100%) making it imposable for the volume reading to always outperform price so any reading above 80% will maintain the buy signal. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years but performance has been damaged by some nasty losses. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ.

How Liquid Q Works

Liquid Q completely ignores price action and instead measures the relative flow of money between a selection of economically sensitive and comparatively stable ares of the market. It looks for times when the smart money is confident and and can be seen by through volume investing heavily is more risky areas due to an expectation of expansion. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years and remained in cash through most of the major declines. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ. We will provide more performance details on the web site for these systems soon.

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Summary

What were subtle warnings that the market was soon to fail are now quite blatant.  No lasting gains can occur while IWM and SMH continue to underperform the broad market and if QQQQ closes back below its 200 day SMA along with IWM below $62.50 then the declines to follow could be quite sharp.

However we must always be open to the possibility that we are wrong so if SMH can close above $26 and IWM above $65 then the situation will need to be reassessed.  Please exercise extreme caution at the moment as new lows are highly probable in the near future.

On a side note here is a fantastic – Visual Guide To Deflation – Enjoy.

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Any disputes, questions, queries, comments or theories are most welcome in the comments section below.

.

Cheers
Derry

And the Team @ ETF HQ

“Equipping you to win on Wall St so that you can reach your financial goals.”

.

P.S Like ETFHQ on Facebook – HERE

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.

Quote of the Day:

“America will never be destroyed from the outside.  If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves. – Abraham Lincoln

September 07, 2010 – 07:00 am EDT

What a week, and what a way to kick off September.  Now a quick rant for those if you who say that September is a bad month for stocks… You are completely missing the point!  It is very dangerous to base trading decisions on a calendar pattern becuase there is no law that states one month with be better than another.

Where there is no law there is nothing to measure, so any pattern is most likely due to coincidence or has simply become a self-fulfilling prophecy.  Such patterns can disappear without warning.  If there is a genuine reason behind a calender pattern such as fund flows due to tax time etc. then design your system to measure that reason… not the calendar!  End rant.

In our last newsletter we warned that there were several bullish signs and to expect short term strength.  Well over the last week we have certainly seen strength and far more than expected.  All the levels set as targets were reached and convincingly exceeded.  The speed of the advance was probably fueled by short covering but was so impressive that it brings into question my theory that we are headed for new lows.  So lets take a closer look…

****Thanks to all those who referred people to this newsletter over the last week. The more readers we have the more services we can provide you.

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ETF % Change Comparison

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This week I have added a measure of how far each of the influential ETFs are from their recent lows.  Leading the advance was IWM and IYT who were also the first to bounce off their lows 10 days ago.  This is impressive as the small caps and the transports are highly economically sensitive.  On a not so impressive note; SMH and QQQQ are only 3 days off their lows.  In a strong market it would be rare for them to getting left behind like this.  These conflicting internals help to explain why the market remains stuck in a range.

Learn more – ETF % Change Comparison

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A Look at the Charts

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SPY exceeded expectations to the upside but volume flows remain bearish and the 100 day SMA stands as resistance.

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QQQQ remains one of the strongest bullish arguments; volume is healthy and OBV never made a new low like it did on SPY, SMH and IWM.  The 100 day SMA stands as resistance and a close below $45 will put us back on track for new lows.

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SMH provides the strongest bearish argument; very negative volume flows and a close on Tuesday below its Feb low.  This action highlights internal cracks in this market that should not be ignored.

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A trend change from volume, strong support and market leadership; this is very bullish.  With a close above $65 and a bit more volume this move will be believable.

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IYT had a poor finish on Friday despite a very strong week.  Looks desperate for some consolidation.

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OM3 Weekly Indicator

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The only ETF still on a sell signal is SMH while everything else has switched to strong buy.  It would be much better to see SMH being the first to gain a buy signal rather than the last.  The bull alerts indicate that the weekly cycle has begun to turn up.

Learn more – The OM3 Indicator

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TransDow & NasDow

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The TransDow system indicates that the Transports have become dominant over the Dow which is a bullish sign and a new position was opened in IYT on Friday.  The NasDow remains on ‘No Signal’ indicating that there is no clearly dominant index between the Dow and the NASDAQ.

.

What the TransDow Readings tell us:

The TransDow measures dominance between the DJ Transportation Index (DJTI) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). In a strong market the more economically sensitive Transportation Index should be dominant over the DJIA.

Historically the DJTI has been dominant over the Dow 45% of the time. The annualized rate of return from the DJTI during this period was 18.47% with the biggest loss for one trade sitting at -13.27%. The annualized return from the DJIA during the periods it was dominant over the DJTI was just 4.06% and the biggest loss for one trade was -16.13%. A 4% stop-loss is applied to all trades adjusting positions only at the end of the week.

What the NasDow Readings tell us:

The NasDow measures dominance between the NASDAQ and the DJIA. Using the same theory behind the Trans Dow; in a strong market the more economically sensitive NASDAQ should be dominant over the DJIA.

Historically the NASDAQ has been dominant over the DJIA 44% of the time. Taking only the trades when the NASDAQ is above its 40 week moving average the annualized rate of return was 25.47% with the biggest loss for one trade sitting at –8.59%. The annualized rate on the DJIA during the periods it was dominant over the NASDAQ is just 8.88% and the biggest loss for one trade was –12.28%. A 8% stop-loss is applied to all trades adjusting positions only at the end of the week.

.

.

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

.

Both LTMF 80 and Liquid Q remain in cash.

.

Historical Stats:

.

.

How The LTMF 80 Works

LTMF stands for Long Term Market Forecaster. It reads volume flows relative to price action and looks for out performance of volume measured on a percentage basis over the prior 12 months. During a sustained rally the readings will reach high levels (near 100%) making it imposable for the volume reading to always outperform price so any reading above 80% will maintain the buy signal. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years but performance has been damaged by some nasty losses. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ.

How Liquid Q Works

Liquid Q completely ignores price action and instead measures the relative flow of money between a selection of economically sensitive and comparatively stable ares of the market. It looks for times when the smart money is confident and and can be seen by through volume investing heavily is more risky areas due to an expectation of expansion. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years and remained in cash through most of the major declines. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ. We will provide more performance details on the web site for these systems soon.

.

.

Summary

The advances over the last week were certainly impressive but the speed of advance is totally unsustainable.  Now many of the Indices are simultaneously against resistance so consolidation is likely to be the best outcome for now.  If SMH can close above $26, IWM above $65 and QQQQ above its 200 day SMA then a solid attempt at new highs will be on the cards.  On the other hand if QQQQ closes below $45 and IWM below $62.50 then I will expect a test and likely failure of the lows.

On a side note here is a fantastic – Visual Guide To Inflation – Enjoy.

.

Any disputes, questions, queries, comments or theories are most welcome in the comments section below.

.

Cheers
Derry

And the Team @ ETF HQ

“Equipping you to win on Wall St so that you can reach your financial goals.”

.

P.S Like ETFHQ on Facebook – HERE

.

.

Quote of the Day:

“If you have trouble imaging a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn’t be in stocks.” – John (Jack) Bogle