Standard Deviation Ratio Adaptive Moving Average (SDR-AMA) – Test Results

The Adaptive Moving Average (AMA) modifies the amount of smoothing it applies to data in an attempt to adjust to the changing needs of a dynamic market.  It makes these adjustments based on the readings from a Volatility Index (VI).  Any measure of volatility or trend strength can be used, however in this article we will focus on how the AMA performs using the Standard Deviation Ratio (SDR).

The SDR-AMA requires five user selected inputs: SD1, SD2, a High – Low smoothing period range for the AMA and a power that Alpha is raised to.  With five variables there are thousands of possible combinations so we had to make some educated assumptions based on our previous tests to narrow the choices down.

First of all we have seen that nearly all of the performance characteristics exhibited by a VI have rung true in tests on both a VMA and an AMA.  When we tested the SDR in a VMA we found that it was best if SD1 was around half of SD2.  We also selected SD lengths that corresponded with the approximate number of trading days in standard calendar periods: 10 days = two weeks, 20 days = 1 month, 40 days = 2 months, 80 days = ⅓ year, 126 days = ½ year and there are 252 trading days in an average year:

SD1/SD2 = 10/20, 40/80, 80/126, 126/252

Second we have seen that a moving average range produces the best results when it can move to as little as 4 periods or less, therefore we will test:

AMA Actual Fast Moving Average (FN) = 1, 4

With the slow moving average we have consistently seen 300 produce the best results while changing this setting hasn’t usually made a big impact.  However we still ran tests through several settings:

AMA Actual Slow Moving Average (SN) = 100, 150, 200, 250, 300

For the Alpha Power we also tested several variables:

Alpha Power (P) = 0.5, 0.75, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5

We tested trades going Long, using Daily data, taking End Of Day (EOD) signals~ analyzing several combinations of the above settings.

Now each time the Alpha Power was adjusted the SC and FC had to be modified to account for the change but the actual FN and SN stayed the same.

For instance a SC – FC range of 1 – 24 with alpha ^ 2 has an actual FN – SN range of about 1 – 300 due to the effect of squaring alpha.  Here is a table that shows the SC – FC ranges used so that the FN – SN ranges stayed constant regardless of ‘P’:

SC and FC values used to keep FN and SN constant as P was changed.

If that doesn’t make a lot of sense then please read our explanation of the Adaptive Moving Average.  A total of 240 different averages were tested and each one was run through 300 years of data across 16 different global indexes (details here).

Download A FREE Spreadsheet With Raw Data For

All 240 SDR-AMA Test Results


Standard Deviation Ratio Adaptive Moving Average – Test Array

Standard Deviation Ratio AMA - Ann Return as Alpha Power is Changed

Above we have charted the annualized returns achieved from each SDR with Alpha raised to different powers along the X axis.  The chart on the left shows the results when the FN = 1 and SN = 300 while on the right FN = 4 and SN = 300.  Clearly extending the FC to 4 had a positive effect and the best returns were achieved with a SDR of 126/252 where Alpha was raised to the power of 2.

 

Best Standard Deviation Ratio Adaptive Moving Average

126/252 Day SDR-AMA, EOD 2, 24 Long ^ 2

Included on the above chart is the performance of the 126 Day FRAMA, EOD 4, 300 Long becuase so far this has been the best performing Moving Average.  The 126 Day SDR-AMA, EOD 2, 24 Long ^ 2 performed OK but could not best the FRAMA and has a much shorter average trade duration; just 8 days compared to 14 for the FRAMA.  For these reasons the FRAMA remains our preferred moving average and the SDR-AMA does not warrant further testing.  But lets take a quick look under the hood:


126 Day SDR-AMA, EOD 2, 24 ^ 2 – Smoothing Period Distribution

126/252 Day SDR-AMA, EOD 2, 24 ^ 2 Smoothing Period Distribution

The smoothing distribution of the 126 Day SDR-AMA, EOD 2, 24 ^ 2 is much more localised around the 4 – 20 range than the FRAMA which explains the shorter trade duration.  The FRAMA on the other hand allows the average to move much slower at times, presumably when the trend is weak.

 

126 Day SDR-AMA 2, 24 ^ 2 – Alpha Comparison

To get an idea of the readings that created these results we charted a section of the alpha for the 126 Day SDR-AMA 2, 24 ^ 2 and compared it to the best performing FRAMA and the best SDR-VMA to see if there were any similarities that would reveal what makes a good volatility index:.

126/252 Day SDR-AMA, EOD 2, 24 ^ 2 - Alpha Comparison

Remember higher alpha readings result in a faster average.  The SDR-AMA and the SDR-VMA are clearly both much faster than the FRAMA.  However the SDR-AMA does slightly outperform the SDR-VMA and notice that the SDR-AMA’s Alpha moves through a greater range from high to low.  This greater ‘adaptability’ is likely to have been a key factor in its better performance.

 

Excel Spreadsheet

Want to use this indicator?  Get a free Excel spreadsheet at the flowing link under Downloads – Technical Indicators: Adaptive Moving Average (AMA).  It will automatically adjust to your choice of many different VIs including the Standard Deviation Ratio used in this article.


For more in this series see – Technical Indicator Fight for Supremacy


  • ~ An entry signal to go long for each average tested was generated with a close above that average and an exit signal was generated on each close below that moving average.  No interest was earned while in cash and no allowance has been made for transaction costs or slippage.  Trades were tested using End Of Day (EOD) signals on Daily data. Eg. Daily data with EOD signals would require the Daily price to close above a Daily Moving Average to open a long and to close below that Average to close the position.
  • We used the average annualized return of the 16 markets during the testing period.  The data used for these tests is included in the results spreadsheet and more details about our methodology can be found here.

252 Day ER-AMA, 9 – AMA Indicator Equivalent

Standard Deviation Ratio (SDR)

The Standard Deviation Ratio (SDR) was first presented as a technical indicator in the March 1992 edition of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine ‘Adapting Moving Averages To Market Volatility‘.  The author Tushar S. Chande, Ph.D. used it as the Volatility Index in the original version of his Volatility Index Dynamic Average (VIDYA) or Variable Moving Average (VMA).

Calculating it is as simple as taking the ratio of a Standard Deviation (SD) over one period to that of a longer period where both have the same starting point.  One quirk of the SDR is that because the short term SD can become greater than the longer term SD, the ratio has no upper limit but does tend to remain below 1 most of the time (see the example chart below).  The higher the ratio, the more spread the recent data is from the mean in relation to the past which should indicate a stronger trend.

It is very helpful to know the strength or lack of a trend as different approaches will be more profitable depending on the market type.  But is the Standard Deviation Ratio an effective way to reveal the strength of a trend?  To find out we are entering it in the Technical Indicator Fight for Supremacy.  We will be testing the SDR as a component in the VIDYA, an Adaptive Moving Average and an Indicator Weighted Moving Average.

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50 / 100 Standard Deviation Ratio Example

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Standard Deviation Ratio

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Standard Deviation Ratio Excel File

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I have put together an Excel Spreadsheet containing the Standard Deviation Ratio and made it available for FREE download.  While the SDR may be very easy to calculate this spreadsheet will automatically adjust to the parameters you specify.  Find it at the following link near the bottom of the page under Downloads – Technical Indicators: Standard Deviation Ratio (SDR)

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Test Results

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As part of the ‘Technical Indicator Fight for Supremacy‘ We have tested/will test the Efficiency Ratio as a component in several technical indicators:

  • Standard Deviation Ratio Variable Moving Average (SDR-VMA) – Completed Results
  • Standard Deviation Ratio Adaptive Moving Average (SDR-AMA) – Completed Results
  • Standard Deviation Ratio Log Normal Adaptive Moving Average (SDR-LAMA)
  • Standard Deviation Ratio Weighted Moving Average (SDR-WMA)

We will also test the SDR as a filter, only taking trades when it indicates a strong trend.