Technical Analysis – Page 3

ETF HQ Report – To The Point

May 02, 2011 – 09:20 am EDT

It was new highs across the board this week and nothing particularly out of the ordinary to be honest. Pressed for time, I will get right to the point…

**** We have just passed $1000 in donations to the Heart Foundation thanks to your generosity! If you get value from these newsletters then please do something in return; give generously to Heart Racer and invite your friends to join our mailing list. Thanks!

ETF % Change Comparison

The Transports had a spectacular week advancing 4.31% while SMH has risen 12.72% off the low it set 44 days ago. Money flowing into these economically sensitive areas is a positive sign for the health of the market over the medium term.

Learn more – ETF % Change Comparison

A Look at the Charts

SPY

OBV is not confirming the new high from SPY but thankfully IWM and IYT are (see below).

QQQ

The volume on QQQ is particularly weak. Hopefully selling will be light during the next pull back.

SMH

SMH has much healthier volume than QQQ. It would be nice to see more convincing new highs.

IWM

Love the Small Caps lots! Great price action on great volume.

IYT

Look at this chart and then try to convince someone we are in a bear market I dare you.

OM3 Weekly Indicator

OM3 Indicator

Notice how the comparatively economically stable SPY and DIA are registering less bullish readings than the other more economically sensitive ETFs. This is a positive sign.

Learn more – The OM3 Indicator

TransDow & NasDow

TransDow – The Transports have gained dominance over the Dow again and the TransDow opened a new position on Friday.

NasDow – The Dow remains dominant over the NASDAQ after 140 days during which time the Dow has advanced 12.27% compared to 8.95% for the NASDAQ.

What the TransDow Readings tell us:

The TransDow measures dominance between the DJ Transportation Index (DJTI) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). In a strong market the more economically sensitive Transportation Index should be dominant over the DJIA.

Historically the DJTI has been dominant over the Dow 45% of the time. The annualized rate of return from the DJTI during this period was 18.47% with the biggest loss for one trade sitting at -13.27%. The annualized return from the DJIA during the periods it was dominant over the DJTI was just 4.06% and the biggest loss for one trade was -16.13%. A 4% stop-loss is applied to all trades adjusting positions only at the end of the week.

What the NasDow Readings tell us:

The NasDow measures dominance between the NASDAQ and the DJIA. Using the same theory behind the Trans Dow; in a strong market the more economically sensitive NASDAQ should be dominant over the DJIA.

Historically the NASDAQ has been dominant over the DJIA 44% of the time. Taking only the trades when the NASDAQ is above its 40 week moving average the annualized rate of return was 25.47% with the biggest loss for one trade sitting at –8.59%. The annualized rate on the DJIA during the periods it was dominant over the NASDAQ is just 8.88% and the biggest loss for one trade was –12.28%. A 8% stop-loss is applied to all trades adjusting positions only at the end of the week.

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

LTMF 80 continues to hold a position in QQQ that is showing a profit of 3.94% after 35 days. Liquid Q remains in cash.

Historical Stats:

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q Stats

How The LTMF 80 Works

LTMF stands for Long Term Market Forecaster. It reads volume flows relative to price action and looks for out performance of volume measured on a percentage basis over the prior 12 months. During a sustained rally the readings will reach high levels (near 100%) making it imposable for the volume reading to always outperform price so any reading above 80% will maintain the buy signal. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years but performance has been damaged by some nasty losses. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQ.

How Liquid Q Works

Liquid Q completely ignores price action and instead measures the relative flow of money between a selection of economically sensitive and comparatively stable ares of the market. It looks for times when the smart money is confident and and can be seen by through volume investing heavily is more risky areas due to an expectation of expansion. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years and remained in cash through most of the major declines. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQ. We will provide more performance details on the web site for these systems soon.

Summary

After an explosive little rally the market has become overbought. The short term outlook is unclear but over the medium to longer term is remains very positive.

Any disputes, questions, queries, comments or theories are most welcome in the comments section below.

Cheers

Derry

And the Team @ ETF HQ

“Equipping you to win on Wall St so that you can reach your financial goals.”

Quote of the Day

“Don’t become that which you seek to destroy. If you want to cut down a tree, it is no use to climb into its branches.”

ETF HQ Report – Anticipating

April 25, 2011 – 07:30 am EDT

It gets a little bit spooky when the market behaves exactly as anticipated over such a prolonged period. For the last few months she has been particularly predictable and that always leaves me feeling on edge.

Last week we said that it was crunch time for the bulls and that any further declines would cause major technical damage. Thankfully they heeded the warning and powerfully drove the market higher. Now the new highs that we have been talking about since mid march are just a stones throw away. Lets take a closer look…

**** $570 in the first week! Thanks to everyone that opened their wallet! If you get value from these newsletters then please do something in return; give generously to Heart Racer and invite your friends to join our mailing list. Thanks!

ETF % Change Comparison

SMH and QQQ were the market leaders over the last week and DIA finished at a new high for the year, all of which are positive signs.

Learn more – ETF % Change Comparison

A Look at the Charts

SPY

It is difficult to pick holes in SPY but OBV is under performing the price action.

QQQ

Besides sluggish volume everything looks good for QQQ.

SMH

Strong volume and strong price action from SMH = healthy bull.

IWM

OBV is at a new high and the Small Caps are looking very healthy.

IYT

IYT is back above $95, has healthy volume flows and a multitude of established support levels underfoot.

OM3 Weekly Indicator

OM3 Indicator

The OM3 indicator lacks decisive confidence in this market.

Learn more – The OM3 Indicator

TransDow & NasDow

TransDow – After just one week the Dow has again become dominant over the Transports. As a result the position has been closed and returned to cash.

NasDow – The Dow remains dominant over the NASDAQ and has been for 132 days now.

What the TransDow Readings tell us:

What the NasDow Readings tell us:

The NasDow measures dominance between the NASDAQ and the DJIA. Using the same theory behind the Trans Dow; in a strong market the more economically sensitive NASDAQ should be dominant over the DJIA.

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

The LTMF 80 continues to hold a position in QQQ that is showing a profit of 2.64% after 27 days. Liquid Q has returned to cash after 62 days to log a small loss of 0.53%.

Historical Stats:

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q Stats

How The LTMF 80 Works

How Liquid Q Works

Summary

We are looking for a continuation of the story we have been telling for the last few months. The healthy pull backs have occurred… support has been tested and proven… now hopefully the new highs we have been anticipating are not far away.

Any disputes, questions, queries, comments or theories are most welcome in the comments section below.

Cheers

Derry

And the Team @ ETF HQ

“Equipping you to win on Wall St so that you can reach your financial goals.”

Poem of the Day

Lose this day loitering – ’twill be the same story
To-morrow – and the next more dilatory;
Each indecision brings its own delays,
And days are lost lamenting o’er lost days,

Are you in earnest? Seize this very minute –
Boldness has genius, power and magic in it.
Only engage, and then the mind grows heated –
Begin it, and then the work will be completed!

– Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe

ETF HQ Report – Cruch Time

April 18, 2011 – 08:40 am EDT

We have been anticipating another test of support before moving to new highs and over the last week we have seen just such a test. So far every single important level has held strong but now it is crunch time. Any further declines will result in major technical damage so the bulls must step up to the plate, but are they capable? Lets take a closer look.

**** Thanks for continuing to spread the word, we grow by word of mouse and that requires your help.

ETF % Change Comparison

IYT (Transportation) was the only influential ETF to advance over the last week while SMH lead the declines. However over the last fortnight the opposite is true; this indicates a churning and indecisiveness in the market.

Learn more – ETF % Change Comparison

A Look at the Charts

SPY

SPY is positioned well to stage a rally. Failure of $130 support would cause major problems.

It is great to see QQQ holding on to its 100 day SMA. Now we want to see buying backed by volume.

SMH

With support underfoot it is time for SMH to put some enthusiasm back into this market and lead the way higher.

IWM

IWM is looking very strong with OBV near new highs and support underfoot.

IYT

The Transports offer another reason the be bullish.

OM3 Weekly Indicator

OM3 Indicator

The OM3 indicator is producing mixed signals but has a bearish bias.

Learn more – The OM3 Indicator

TransDow & NasDow

TransDow – The Transports have again become dominant over the Dow and a new position was initiated on Friday.

NasDow – The Dow remains dominant over the NASDAQ and has been for 126 days now. During this time the Dow has advanced 8.14% and the NASDAQ just 4.82%.

What the TransDow Readings tell us:

What the NasDow Readings tell us:

The NasDow measures dominance between the NASDAQ and the DJIA. Using the same theory behind the Trans Dow; in a strong market the more economically sensitive NASDAQ should be dominant over the DJIA.

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

Both LTMF 80 and Liquid Q continue to hold open positions in QQQ.

Historical Stats:

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q Stats

How The LTMF 80 Works

How Liquid Q Works

Summary

Indications are that support has been found and that the bulls are soon to take control once again. However there is not much time available to linger so if SMH and QQQ close below their 100 Day SMAs the risk level will rise significantly. If IWM were to then close below $80 we will have officially been caught in a bull trap.

Any disputes, questions, queries, comments or theories are most welcome in the comments section below.

Cheers

Derry

And the Team @ ETF HQ

“Equipping you to win on Wall St so that you can reach your financial goals.”

A Humble Request

The first symptom for most people is death and 17 million people die from it every year which is 34% of funerals globally!! If you don’t know anyone who has been lost to heart disease then chances are one day you will.

I’ve set up a site at http://www.heartracer.org.nz/derrybrown/

Please support me as I participate in the Auckland Marathon in an effort to raise funds for The Heart Foundation.

The goal is to raise $10,000 which is just $10 form 100 people but to do that I will need you help!

Fractal Dimension Variable Moving Average (D-VMA) – Test Results

The Variable Moving Average (VMA) dynamically adjusts its own smoothing period to the changing market conditions based on a Volatility Index (VI). While any VI can be used, in this article we will look at how the VMA performs using the Fractal Dimension (D). This measure was originally used by John F Ehlers as a component in his Fractal Adaptive Moving Average (FRAMA) which has so far set the standard in our moving average tests.

We did have to make one slight modification to the Fractal Dimension however. The Volatility index in a VMA needs to shift through a 0 – 1 range where higher readings indicate a stronger trend. The Fractal Dimension shifts through a 1 – 2 range where lower readings indicate a stronger trend. Therefore we shall use = ABS(D – 2).

The D-VMA requires two user selected inputs: A Fractal Dimension Period and a VMA period. We tested trades going Long and Short, using Daily data, taking End Of Day (EOD) and End Of Week (EOW) signals~ analyzing all combinations of:

D = 10, 20, 40, 80, 126, 252

VMA = 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50

The D lengths were selected due to the fact that they correspond with the approximate number of trading days in standard calendar periods: 10 days = 2 weeks, 20 days = 1 month, 40 days = 2 months, 80 days = ⅓ year, 126 days = ½ year and there are 252 trading days in an average year.

The VMA periods were selected after preliminary tests showed that when combined with the different ER lengths they resulted in median smoothing periods between 12 and 133 days; a range that should capture the best results based on what we know from previous research into moving averages.

A total of 240 different averages were tested and each one was run through 300 years of data across 16 different global indexes (details here).

Download A FREE Spreadsheet With Raw Data For

All 240 D-VMA Long and Short Test Results

D Variable Moving Average EOD vs EOW Returns:

. Fractal Dimension Variable Moving Average - Average Annualized Return, Long

It must be noted that every single D-VMA using EOD or EOW signals managed to outperform the average buy and hold annualized return of 6.32%^ during the test period (before allowing for transaction costs and slippage). This is very impressive when you consider that most fund managers fail to out perform a simple buy and hold approach.

Clearly the D periods of 126 and 252 produced the best results using both EOD and EOW signals. This echoes previous results on other ‘intelligent’ moving averages. The 126 Day D-VMA with a constant of 10 stands out as the best performer with EOD signals while the 252 Day D-VMA with a constant of 30 was the best when taking EOW signals.

Because the returns hold up so well when using EOW signals lets take a closer look at the how the probability of profit and trade duration compares for EOD and EOW signals with a D of 126 and 252:

Fractal Dimension VMA - Probability of Profit and Average Trade Duration, Long .

Clearly there is a large jump in the probability of profit and the average trade duration when using EOW signals; both are highly desirable characteristics especially if they can be achieved without sacrificing too much return.

Best EOD Efficiency Ratio Variable Moving Average

126 Day D-VMA EOD, 10 Long .

I have included on the above chart the performance of the 126 Day FRAMA, EOD 4, 300 Long becuase so far this has been the best performing Moving Average. The 126 Day D-VMA, EOD 10, Long produced almost identical results to the best that the FRAMA could produce and there is really very little between the two.

126 Day D-VMA, EOD 10 – Smoothing Period Distribution

126 Day D-VMA, EOD 10 - Smoothing Period Distribution .

The smoothing distribution for the two averages has a similar shape but the D-VMA starts from 10 and the FRAMA starts from 4.

126 Day D-VMA, 1 – Alpha Comparison

To get an idea of the readings that created these results we charted a section of the alpha for the 126 Day D-VMA, 1 and compared it to the best performing FRAMA to see if there were any similarities that would reveal what makes a good volatility index:

126 Day D-VMA, 10 - Alpha Comparison .

It is not surprising that the shapes of the alpha readings are almost identical because they are both based on the same Fractal Dimension reading. The only real difference is that the FRAMA tends to move to extremes more readily.

Best EOW Efficiency Ratio Variable Moving Average

252 Day D-VMA EOW, 30 Long .

I have included on the above chart the performance of the 252 Day FRAMA, EOW 40, 250 Long becuase so far this has been the best performing ‘slower’ Moving Average. The 252 Day D-VMA, EOW 30, produced almost the exact same results but did under perform ever so slightly.

252 Day D-VMA, EOW 30 – Smoothing Period Distribution

252 Day D-VMA, 30 - Smoothing Period Distribution .

The smoothing distribution for the 252 Day D-VMA, 30 is more spread than that of the FRAMA but is still very similar.

252 Day D-VMA, 30 – Alpha Comparison

252 Day D-VMA, 10 - Alpha Comparison .

Not surprisingly you can see the close similarity between the alpha readings for the D-VMA and the FRAMA thus the similar performance.

Conclusion

The fact that the D-VMA produces almost the exact same results to the FRAMA shows that the volatility index is more important than the method for translating those readings into an ‘intelligent’ moving average. However because the FRAMA offers more control and fractionally better returns it remains the best moving average we have found so far.

Want to use the Fractal Dimension Variable Moving Average? Get a free Excel spreadsheet at the flowing link under Downloads – Technical Indicators: Variable Moving Average (VMA). It will automatically adjust to one of many different VIs that you can select including the Fractal Dimension used in this article.

For more in this series see – Technical Indicator Fight for Supremacy

~ An entry signal to go long (or exit signal to cover a short) for each average tested was generated with a close above that average and an exit signal (or entry signal to go short) was generated on each close below that moving average. No interest was earned while in cash and no allowance has been made for transaction costs or slippage. Trades were tested using End Of Day (EOD) and End Of Week (EOW) signals on Daily data. Eg. Daily data with an EOW signal would require the Week to finish above a Daily Moving Average to open a long or close a short while Daily data with EOD signals would require the Daily price to close above a Daily Moving Average to open a long or close a short and vice versa.
^ This was the average annualized return of the 16 markets during the testing period. The data used for these tests is included in the results spreadsheet and more details about our methodology can be found here.

252 Day ER-AMA, 9 – Alpha Comparison

ETF HQ Report – Orderly at this stage

April 11, 2011 – 08:55 am EDT

There were signs last week that short term weakness and a test of support was on the way before new highs. It now appears as though that weakness has begun and a close observation of buying interest around support will be necessary. But are we indeed seeing profit taking or have we underestimated the bears? Lets take a closer look…

**** Welcome to this weeks new readers. Thanks for everyone that spread the word!

ETF % Change Comparison

If SMH had had another bad week then it would have majorly deflated the bullish argument. Instead we see SMH and IWM up over 7% from their low 23 days ago and SMH again leading the market higher. Hopefully IYT doesn’t have a repeat performance this coming week as participation from the transports is necessary for the market to maintain support.

Learn more – ETF % Change Comparison

A Look at the Charts

SPY

Very important support at $130!

Would really like to see 100 Day SMA support hold.

SMH

SMH really has the power to ignite or extinguish the broad market. A little bit of buying here and she will be off.

IWM

Loving the volume on IWM. Not what you are likely to see at a market top.

IYT

IYT is back below $95 and lacks direction. Looking for support nearby.

OM3 Weekly Indicator

OM3 Indicator

The OM3 Indicator suggests a general lack of direction from the market.

Learn more – The OM3 Indicator

TransDow & NasDow

TransDow – The Dow has regained dominance over the Transports and as a result the TransDow has moved into cash, locking in a profit of 3.41% on the transports over the last 21 days.

NasDow – The Dow remains dominant over the NASDAQ after 119 days. Historically the market has been very unproductive during periods that the Dow has been dominant.

What the TransDow Readings tell us:

What the NasDow Readings tell us:

The NasDow measures dominance between the NASDAQ and the DJIA. Using the same theory behind the Trans Dow; in a strong market the more economically sensitive NASDAQ should be dominant over the DJIA.

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

Both LTMF 80 and Liquid Q continue to hold open positions in QQQ.

Historical Stats:

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q Stats

How The LTMF 80 Works

How Liquid Q Works

Liquid Q completely ignores price action and instead measures the relative flow of money between a selection of economically sensitive and comparatively stable ares of the market. It looks for times when the smart money is confident and and can be seen by through volume investing heavily is more risky areas due to an expectation of expansion. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years and remained in cash through most of the major declines. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ. We will provide more performance details on the web site for these systems soon.

Summary

The selling over the last week was orderly and at this stage no major support levels have been broken. The buying interest on SMH is positive but now we need to see some follow though. If SMH can finish the week above its 50 day SMA then all is well. However if we see QQQ and SMH below their 100 Day SMAs then the risk level will raise significantly.

Any disputes, questions, queries, comments or theories are most welcome in the comments section below.

Cheers

Derry

And the Team @ ETF HQ

“Equipping you to win on Wall St so that you can reach your financial goals.”

Poem Of The Week:

. . . Therefore, go forth, companion: when you find
No highway more, no track, all being blind,
The way to go shall glimmer in the mind.

Though you have conquered Earth and Charted Sea
And planned the courses of all Stars that be,
Adventure on, more wonders are in Thee.

Adventure on, for from the littlest clue
Has come whatever worth man ever knew;
The next to lighten all men may be you . . .

– John Masefield

ETF HQ Report – Semi Fail

April 04, 2011 – 08:10 am EDT

The broad market continued higher over the last week and into the 2nd quarter of 2011. But on a negative note SMH failed at resistance from its 50 Day SMA and fell back. Is this is sign of coming weakness or just a bump on the way to new highs? Lets take a closer look…

**** We grow by word of mouth, please continue to spread the word. Thanks!

ETF % Change Comparison

As you can see the Semis (SMH) gave back 1.42% over the last week which is never a positive sign because the semis tend to lead the broad market. What is good however is that the Transports (IYT) and the small caps (IWM) finished at new highs and both had a very strong week. Now, the broad market can’t make much ground without participation from the SMH but while IYT and IWM continue to show such strength there is no immediate cause for concern.

Learn more – ETF % Change Comparison

A Look at the Charts

SPY

Volume is improving but a test of $130 would be healthy before further advances.

QQQQ

QQQ really needs the close above its 50 Day SMA to be confirmed by SMH doing the same before it can carry any weight.

SMH

SMH is suddenly offering a bearish argument. Simply avoiding a close below its 100 Day SMA would be very encouraging.

IWM

Very strong volume combined with new highs from the small caps (IWM) and we have reason for faith in the bulls.

IYT

When the Transports (IYT) are leading the market to new highs there is rarely reason for concern.

OM3 Weekly Indicator

OM3 Indicator

Weak signals indicate indecisiveness and the lack of a strong trend.

Learn more – The OM3 Indicator

TransDow & NasDow

TransDow – After two weeks the Transports remain dominant over the Dow and the current trade is showing a profit of 6.22%.

NasDow – The Dow remains dominant of the the NASDAQ and the NasDow remains in cash.

What the TransDow Readings tell us:

What the NasDow Readings tell us:

The NasDow measures dominance between the NASDAQ and the DJIA. Using the same theory behind the Trans Dow; in a strong market the more economically sensitive NASDAQ should be dominant over the DJIA.

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

LTMF 80 is showing a profit of 1.63% on its open position in QQQ after one week. Liquid Q on the other hand continues to show a loss after 42 days although the loss has gotten much smaller.

Historical Stats:

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q Stats

How The LTMF 80 Works

How Liquid Q Works

Liquid Q completely ignores price action and instead measures the relative flow of money between a selection of economically sensitive and comparatively stable ares of the market. It looks for times when the smart money is confident and and can be seen by through volume investing heavily is more risky areas due to an expectation of expansion. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years and remained in cash through most of the major declines. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ. We will provide more performance details on the web site for these systems soon.

Summary

The sudden under performance of SMH raises warning bells that should not be ignored. However while SMH remains above its 100 Day SMA and IYT above $95 there is no immediate cause for concern.

Any disputes, questions, queries, comments or theories are most welcome in the comments section below.

Cheers

Derry

And the Team @ ETF HQ

“Equipping you to win on Wall St so that you can reach your financial goals.”

Quote Of The Week:

“Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson

ETF HQ Report – Political Confusion, Technical Clarity

March 28, 2011 – 07:02 am EDT

The market bounced quite impressively off support over the last week and did so on strong volume. New highs in the not too distant future remain likely but over the short term things are more uncertain so lets take a closer look…

**Note QQQQ has been changed back to QQQ. Why? Just to annoy us all and mess up our programming I am certain.

**** We had a big jump in subscribers this week so welcome to our new readers. Thanks for continuing to spread the word.

ETF % Change Comparison

This is very healthy; the leaders for the week were SMH and QQQQ followed by IWM and IYT. These are four highly economically sensitive ETFs so when they are picking up the bid during a bounce off support it shows confidence from the smart money. Plus despite SMH being the furthest from its peak it has also bounced the hardest from its recent low. All of this indicates that the bull market has plenty of life left in it.

Learn more – ETF % Change Comparison

A Look at the Charts

SPY

Don’t get too excited about SPY being back above its 50 Day SMA, another test of support is a real possibility. If it happens then we want to see it occur on light volume.

QQQ

QQQ is a touch below its 50 Day SMA, while a close above this level would be great there is no harm in a bit of consolidation first.

SMH

SMH has had strong volume behind the recent bounce however if we see some profit taking and OBV moves to a new low then the market will be in trouble.

IWM

IWM is ever so close to its Feb high and if it can lead the market into new highs this would be an epic vote of confidence for the bulls.

IYT

The Transports have lacked direction for the last 4 months but they have also established great support. A new high would be a real jewel in the bullish crown.

OM3 Weekly Indicator

OM3

The OM3 indicator is confused and mostly providing no signal.

Learn more – The OM3 Indicator

TransDow & NasDow

TransDow – The Transports remain dominant over the Dow after 7 days during which time they have advanced 3%.

NasDow – The Dow remains dominant over the NASDAQ after 105 days, during this time the Dow and NASDAQ have advanced 7.10% and 4.00% respectively. In theory the dominant index should outperform, as it has in this case.

What the TransDow Readings tell us:

What the NasDow Readings tell us:

The NasDow measures dominance between the NASDAQ and the DJIA. Using the same theory behind the Trans Dow; in a strong market the more economically sensitive NASDAQ should be dominant over the DJIA.

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

LTMF 80 just opened a new position in QQQ on Friday.

Liquid Q continues to hold a position in QQQ that is showing a loss of 3.09% after 35 days.

Historical Stats:

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q Stats

How The LTMF 80 Works

How Liquid Q Works

Liquid Q completely ignores price action and instead measures the relative flow of money between a selection of economically sensitive and comparatively stable ares of the market. It looks for times when the smart money is confident and and can be seen by through volume investing heavily is more risky areas due to an expectation of expansion. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years and remained in cash through most of the major declines. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ. We will provide more performance details on the web site for these systems soon.

Summary

From a political and economic perspective there are a multitude of reasons to be concerned. But this newsletter is not about using politics or fundamentals for trading, it is about technical analysis.

From a technical perspective there are few reasons for concern. Support levels held across the board, the market then bounced off that support and on solid volume was lead higher by the more economically sensitive ETFs.

I will not be concerned if we see some profit taking or another test of support over the short term. However there will be reason for concern if we see OBV on these ETFs making lower lows and our friends like SMH, IWM and IYT behaving comparatively badly.

Any disputes, questions, queries, comments or theories are most welcome in the comments section below.

Cheers

Derry

And the Team @ ETF HQ

“Equipping you to win on Wall St so that you can reach your financial goals.”

Hypocrite of the Week:

“The president does not have power under the Constitution to unilaterally authorize a military attack in a situation that does not involve stopping an actual or imminent threat to the nation.” – Obama Bin Lyin’ December 20, 2007

ETF HQ Report – Back To Normal

March 21, 2011 – 08:34 am EDT

Does anyone else get the feeling that the market has returned to something that feels more like home? I am not sure if that makes sense but it is like things are all of a sudden returning to a more normal pattern of behavior.

Over the last week every single one of the targets we set were reached (or very nearly so). Most importantly however; every single one of the support levels have held strong. Where to from here? Lets take a closer look…

**** We grow by word of mouth, please continue to spread the word. Thanks!

ETF % Change Comparison

The two best performers over the last week were IWM and IYT; both are highly economically sensitive ETFs so to see them showing relative strength is a positive sign. Also notice how SMH declined less than QQQQ? The companies in SMH supply components that are particularly integral to many of the companies in QQQQ. When things are bad SMH should lead QQQQ lower so to see the opposite is a show of confidence from investors.

Learn more – ETF % Change Comparison

A Look at the Charts

SPY

Volume was strong behind the declines but support has been found. Keep an eye on $125, it would be very positive if this level holds.

QQQQ

Support has been found on the November high and indications are this level will hold.

SMH

Volume is very bearish but important support has been found around $32. This is a MUST HOLD level for the bulls!!

IWM

This chart should inspire confidence and belief in the longer term prospects of the market.

IYT

The Transports keep holding their head above $90 and to continue to do so would be very bullish.

OM3 Weekly Indicator

OM3 Indicator

For the first time in about 6 months we have a clean sweep of sell signals. However while support remains, now is not the time to be selling.

Learn more – The OM3 Indicator

TransDow & NasDow

TransDow – The Transports became dominant over the Dow on Friday and initiated a new long position.

NasDow – The Dow remains dominant over the NASDAQ after 98 days, during this time the Dow and NASDAQ have advanced 3.93% and 0.23% respectively. In theory the dominant index should outperform, as it has in this case.

What the TransDow Readings tell us:

What the NasDow Readings tell us:

The NasDow measures dominance between the NASDAQ and the DJIA. Using the same theory behind the Trans Dow; in a strong market the more economically sensitive NASDAQ should be dominant over the DJIA.

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

LTMF 80 has shifted to cash after 182 days in QQQQ and locked in a profit of 13.67%. This is well off the high of around 22%. It will be interesting to see if this sell signal was well timed or not.

Liquid Q continues to hold a position in QQQQ that was initiated almost at the very top of the market and currently shows a loss of 7.29%.

Historical Stats:

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q Stats

How The LTMF 80 Works

How Liquid Q Works

Liquid Q completely ignores price action and instead measures the relative flow of money between a selection of economically sensitive and comparatively stable ares of the market. It looks for times when the smart money is confident and and can be seen by through volume investing heavily is more risky areas due to an expectation of expansion. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years and remained in cash through most of the major declines. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ. We will provide more performance details on the web site for these systems soon.

Summary

All of the declines so far have been healthy and appear to be within the context of a longer term bull market. If key support levels such as SMH $32, IWM 100 Day SMA and IYT $90 are lost then I will have been wrong and the market will probably fall apart in short order. But while support remains, new highs remain likely at some point this year.

Any disputes, questions, queries, comments or theories are most welcome in the comments section below.

Cheers

Derry

And the Team @ ETF HQ

“Equipping you to win on Wall St so that you can reach your financial goals.”

Quote Of The Week:

“The only mistake you can ever make is the one you make twice.” – Unknown

ETF HQ Report – The Good the Bad and the Radioactive

March 14, 2011 – 09:17 am EST

Friday afternoon I was looking at my computer screen in total disbelief. A Twitter message saying “#JAPAN Earthquake” lead me to Aljazeera’s streaming news channel. Suddenly from the comfort of my office I had real-time footage of a Tsunami carrying burning houses across the landscape of Japan and snuffing out all life in its wake. It was hard to mentally digest such images. They made the epic destruction from Christchurch’s recent earthquake look like the handy work of an angry child.

Now as I write this I hear that there have been two explosions at one of Japan’s nuclear plants the second of which could be felt 30 miles away! Also the cooling on a third reactor has been lost… I know we have about a dozen subscribers from Japan and hope you and your families are all safe!

Now think, if you were one of the people who’s lives had been turned upside down. I am sure you would rather the rest of the world send their donations rather than their sympathy – Red Cross.

As fate would have it, for the last two weeks my biggest position has been short EWJ (Japan). With the Nikkei 225 down over 6% on Monday I feel sick at the thought I am profiting from death a nuclear fallout. So I will be donating some of the profits.

———————-

It was a fascinating week in the US market. Our last newsletter warned of “a high risk of declines“… On Tuesday I posted to our Facebook followers: “Buying interest found around support again today but with QQQQ and SMH being hit comparatively hard I’m not buying this dip!” Then Wednesday on Facebook: “Looks like SMH is going to close below its 50 Day SMA = DANGER DANGER, will Robinson!”

** Are you following us on Facebook yet?

By the end of Thursday the broad market had pulled back significantly and most if the ETFs that we track had closed below support. While this is concerning behavior there are reasons to believe that there is still life left in this market. Lets lake a closer look…

**** Do you find this newsletter of value? If so then please post a testimonial and help our readership grow by telling your friends. Thanks heaps!

ETF % Change Comparison

Interesting stuff! SMH suddenly is championing the pull back which demands that this be viewed as more that just a quick dip. The big surprise for the week was that IYT (Transports) advanced 1.64%. This is one indication that over the longer term there is probably more upside left because otherwise IYT would be getting pulled down harshly with the broad market. Also, did you notice that SMH was the last to peak? Generally the Semis are the first to peak at the end of a bull market.

Learn more – ETF % Change Comparison

A Look at the Charts

SPY

Volume flows have deteriorated and the 50 Day SMA support is meaningless without QQQQ.

QQQQ

The loss of support confirms the short term bearish trend change in volume.

SMH

Save this chart it is full of warning signs. Volume has been heavy on the declines.

IWM

The continued bullish volume trend of IWM offers further hope for the longer term prospects for higher prices.

IYT

There is no way that a trend change on the broad market can occur while IYT remains above $90.

OM3 Weekly Indicator

OM3 Indicator

SMH has just recieved the first sell signal from the OM3 indicator in over 6 months. Bear alerts across the board warn of a continued decline in the weekly cycle.

Learn more – The OM3 Indicator

TransDow & NasDow

NasDow – The Dow remains dominant over the NASDAQ after 91 days during which time the Dow and NASDAQ have advanced 5.56% and 2.96% respectively.

TransDow – The Dow remains dominant over the Transports after 48 days during which time the Dow and the Transports have advanced 1.45% and 1.61% respectively.

Historically when the Dow has been the dominant index the market has been very unproductive and most of its major declines have occurred.

What the TransDow Readings tell us:

What the NasDow Readings tell us:

The NasDow measures dominance between the NASDAQ and the DJIA. Using the same theory behind the Trans Dow; in a strong market the more economically sensitive NASDAQ should be dominant over the DJIA.

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q

LTMF 80 continues to hold a position in QQQQ that is showing a profit of 17.93% after 175 days. Liquid Q also continues to hold a position in QQQQ that is showing a loss of 3.81% after 21 days.

Historical Stats:

LTMF 80 & Liquid Q Stats

How The LTMF 80 Works

How Liquid Q Works

Liquid Q completely ignores price action and instead measures the relative flow of money between a selection of economically sensitive and comparatively stable ares of the market. It looks for times when the smart money is confident and and can be seen by through volume investing heavily is more risky areas due to an expectation of expansion. This system has outperformed the market over the last 10 years and remained in cash through most of the major declines. It only produces buy signals and only for QQQQ. We will provide more performance details on the web site for these systems soon.

Summary

The Bad – Important support has been lost from many areas and this has been confirmed by a trend change in volume.

The Good – IWM still has a bullish volume trend, SMH was the last to peak before the recent declines and IYT is showing exceptional relative strength.

While the good factors continue to exist it is likely that these declines are simply a healthy pull back within a longer term bull market. This situation is constantly evolving however so please stay alert and don’t go to sleep at the switch in case we start to see a melt down; be it figurative or literal.

Any disputes, questions, queries, comments or theories are most welcome in the comments section below.

Cheers

Derry

And the Team @ ETF HQ

“Equipping you to win on Wall St so that you can reach your financial goals.”

Angry Degenerate Of The Week:

“listen u *%$@ STOP writin about the stock falling. it criminals like you with your letters that cause the market to go down!!!!!!” – Anonymous Reader

Relative Volatility Index Variable MA (RVI-VMA) – Test Results

The RVI-VMA requires three user selected inputs: A Standard Deviation (SD) period, a Wilder’s Smoothing (WS) period and a VMA constant. We tested trades going Long using Daily data taking End Of Day (EOD) signals~ analyzing all combinations of:

SD = 10, 20, 40, 80, 126, 252

WS = 9, 14, 19

VMA = 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50

The SD lengths were selected due to the fact that they correspond with the approximate number of trading days in standard calendar periods: 10 days = 2 weeks, 20 days = 1 month, 40 days = 2 months, 80 days = ⅓ year, 126 days = ½ year and there are 252 trading days in an average year.

The WS periods were selected because the standard setting for a RVI is 14 and it makes sense to test a few days either side of this in search of the best option.

The VMA periods were selected after preliminary tests showed that when combined with the different SD lengths they resulted in median smoothing periods between 3 and 173 days; a range that should capture the best results based on what we know from previous research into moving averages.

A total of 180 different averages were tested and each one was run through 300 years of data across 16 different global indexes (details here).

Download A FREE Spreadsheet With Raw Data For

All 180 RVI-VMA Long and Short Test Results

RVI Variable Moving Average EOD Returns, Long:

. RVI-VMA Annualized Return - Long, WS Period Comparison

As with our previous VMA tests, every single RVI-VMA using EOD signals outperformed the average buy and hold annualized return of 6.32%^ during the test period (before allowing for transaction costs and slippage).

The charts above are split into three sets according to their WS period. Each set reveals very similar results but, low and behold the standard setting of 14 proved the best by a small margin.

To our surprise the Standard Deviation period didn’t really matter and despite testing a huge range from 10 days to 252 days, all the results were very similar. So we decided to select 126 days as the best SD period becuase it has been the best Volatility Index setting in several previous VMA tests.

For the VMA constant, a period of 10 stood out as producing the best results across the board. Therefore we want a RVI-VMA within a SD period of 126, a WS period of 14 and a VMA constant of 10:

Best EOD Relative Volatility Index Variable Moving Average:

126, 14 Day RVI-VMA, EOD 10, Long .

I have included on the above chart the performance of the 126 Day FRAMA, EOD 4, 300 Long becuase so far this has been the best performing Moving Average. The 126, 14 Day RVI-VMA, EOD 10, Long can’t compare in terms of performance with the FRAMA and offers no outstanding attributes in any other areas.

126, 14 Day RVI-VMA, EOD 10 – Smoothing Period Distribution:

126 Day RVI-VMA, EOD 10 – Smoothing Period Distribution .

The RVI-VMA is very localized around its median smoothing period of 20. Almost the entire distribution (96%) is covered with a 12 – 31 range which only represents 28% of the smoothing for the better performing FRAMA.

126, 14 Day RVI-VMA, 10 – Alpha Comparison

To get an idea of the readings that created these results we charted a section of the alpha for the 126, 14 Day RVI-VMA, 10 and compared it to the best performing FRAMA to see if there were any similarities that would reveal what makes a good volatility index:

126 Day ER-VMA, 1 – Alpha Comparison .

As you can see the Alpha for the 126, 14 Day RVI-VMA, 10 is very volatile but stays within a tight range. The better performing 126 Day FRAMA 4, 300 on the other hand produces readings that are much more stable however they do move to extremes upon occasion resulting in a more ‘Variable’ Moving Average.

Conclusion

The RVI-VMA outperformed a buy and hold approach in our tests but is nowhere neat as effective as the FRAMA and therefore is not worthy of being used as a trading tool.

Want to have a play with this indicator anyway? Get a free Excel spreadsheet at the flowing link under Downloads – Technical Indicators: Variable Moving Average (VMA). It will automatically adjust to one of many different VIs that you can select including the Relative Volatility Index featured in this article.

For more in this series see – Technical Indicator Fight for Supremacy

~ An entry signal to go long for each average tested was generated with a close above that average and an exit signal was generated on each close below that moving average. No interest was earned while in cash and no allowance has been made for transaction costs or slippage. Trades were tested using End Of Day (EOD) signals on Daily data. Eg. Daily data with EOD signals requires the Daily price to close above a Daily Moving Average to open a long and vice versa.
^ This was the average annualized return of the 16 markets during the testing period. The data used for these tests is included in the results spreadsheet and more details about our methodology can be found here.